Professor Tim Kane

Professor Tim Kane

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Professor Tim Kane
Professor Tim Kane
Sleeper Issue for 2024: Inflation

Sleeper Issue for 2024: Inflation

The price of Halloween candy may be this year's "October Surprise"

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Tim Kane
Jan 18, 2024
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Professor Tim Kane
Professor Tim Kane
Sleeper Issue for 2024: Inflation
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assorted chocolate bar on red shelf
Photo by Sebbi Strauch on Unsplash

The price of a candy bar has been increasing faster than other goods in the CPI basket, which is an oddly political dilemma. In a fascinating op-ed today, Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, explains why inflation feels worse to voters when they experience it with everyday purchases compared to more durable goods that are bought less often such as cars and appliances.

“More than 12 Snickers bars are sold every second in the United States. That makes Snickers bars a very important part of consumer purchases … Unfortunately for the Biden administration, however, food prices are still rising — a fact evident at every supermarket checkout. Less than a tenth of an average household’s budget is spent at the supermarket, but the prices paid there dominate the inflation perception of the consumer.”

To see for myself, I reached out to an official at the BLS this morning and was able to pull annual data for a variety of goods thanks to his instant reply (great customer service, BLS). See the screenshot of my number crunching above, and note that the price increase for six categories of food.

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